Political: The Futures of China

The Futures of China
Where is China heading? The recent attempt at defection of Chen Yonglin to Australia - quickly followed by two other Chinese diplomats - has created something of a storm in Australia, and elsewhere. It comes at a time when surveys in western countries show that China's image abroad is more positive than ever. People are increasingly seeing China as a friendly and (relatively) liberal partner in world globalisation.

Yet Chen's claims have raised further concerns about whether Chinas political development is keeping pace with its economic development. Recently there have been further arrests of journalists, internet restrictions, increased party indoctrination sessions for journalists and lots of people listening to obnoxious Chinese pop songs on public transport. Where will it all end?
Former student leader Wang Dan has noted recently that "Most of the transformations we saw in the past decade were economic ones. If there is no corresponding reform on the political side, a lot of social problems will arise." He cited rampant official corruption and social injustice as volatile issues that could lead to social instability. He believes that until the Tiananmen incident is vindicated and discussed in China, all talk of political reform is meaningless.

One of the most poignant remarks about "progress" in China in recent times was made by another student leader from 1989, Wuer Kaixi, who is still in exile from the mainland. This comes from an interview from Hong Kong magazine.

The Chinese people have accepted a lousy deal, exchanging political freedom for economic freedom, both of which I think Chinese people are entitled to. Since the Tiananmen crackdown, we have seen a parade of foreign leaders and multinational corporations feting China's leaders, as if somehow things have changed, but as far as I can see nothing has. If anything, China's leaders have learned their lesson, and have a tighter grip on power today than they did when I went into exile...Morally, to my mind, the continual rule of the regime that exiled me is indefensible. Realistically on the other hand, the world needs to engage with China, and that leaves us in an awkward place.

In the west at large there seem to be two camps in terms of opinion about China's future, if one may generalise. They are the China optimists and the China pessimists. As the names imply, the optimists seem to think China has an incredibly positive future, and tend to look at any problems in China as aberrations that will be swept aside by the liberalisation of China and its glorious future. They like to watch CCTV 9. The China pessimists on the other hand tend to focus upon the negatives. They look at China and see the mind-boggling inefficiency, political repression, imbalance in regard to economic and political developments, and when they see economic development they point out that it is massively skewed towards the middle class. Some see an inevitable collapse of China amidst all the corruption, vice, economic instability environmental decay, and repeats of Korean soapies.

Scenarios
Lets use a little cerebral stretching here, and hypothesise where China might go in the next 10-20 years. These will be crucial years. I suggest three possible scenarios, amongst numerous other possibilities.

Scenario One: Full steam ahead. Political and economic progress.
In this scenario, the optimists prove correct. Hu Jintao's crackdowns prove ephemeral. After stability is achieved, and the Olympics are a glorious success, a billion flowers are allowed to bloom. There is political liberalization. Democratic reforms are progressively introduced, beginning with Hong Kong, and eventually spreading to the mainland. The media, the internet and academia are unshackled. Education is liberalized. The economy booms amidst the new freedoms. People carry spit bags around and use them. China is a true superpower.

Scenario Two: The China machine. Economic progress, political stagnation.
Hu Jintao continues to utilise the media to present a glossy self-image for himself and the CCP. He is seen in public beaming and waving before cameras as he flirts with leaders from around the world. Economic advancement is handled to precision. and all the people of China become wealthier, matching levels in western countries. Hu gives up on subtle bribery such as offering Pandas to Taiwan, and instead sends a cheque instead. The tactics work a wonder, and the two sides of the Strait are united in glorious harmony.

But there is no such liberalisation in the media, academia or other information sources. The CCP tightens its grip on power. The reform through labour camps continue to operate, text books refuse to mention June 4, the invasion of Tibet, the cultural revolution or Hu's dyed hair. Mao's smug mug continues to hang before Tiananmen Square.

In twenty years China's economic clout is so great, that nobody is willing to stand up to its bullying over Taiwan or other territorial disputes. When China invades Taiwan, there is a distilled mumble of protests, but nobody does anything. The French sell weapons to the Taiwanese resistance to counter the ones they sold to the Chinese twenty years earlier.


Scenario Three: Collapse and devastation.
Foreign multi-national corporations continue to exploit China for all it is worth. The CCP continues to run “Happy Happy” news in the media. People notice things are bad, but like the frog swimming in the pot of ever-hotter boiling water, they are just too apathetic and too ill-informed to see it all going to hell. There are a series of environmental disasters. Sand storms engulf Beijing for a month in spring 2010, severely disrupting business. Beijing announces that“Everything is getting better and better, and 9% growth as usual!” They tell everyone to plant more trees. The Yangzi River turns to black sludge. All those swimming in it at the time are preserved for eternity in a soup of chemical sludge and nitrogenous human waste. (They are discovered one million years later by a team of aliens scouting this part of the galaxy). Amidst public concern expressed by factories that no longer have anywhere to pump their shit, Beijing announces: “9% growth, no slowdown.” There are riots in Tiananmen Square when tobacco crops begin dying and Chinese men, (most of whom cant get laid because of the women shortage), are unable to get their daily fix of carcinogens. They revolt en masse. Hu Jintao's troops open fire. The long eerie silence is only broken by the megaphone-voice of a government spokesman informing all to: “Return to your houses; and by the way, its 9% growth this month in case you were wondering.” But the riots continue. The country, like the rivers, the air and the economy, turns to shit.

So there it is. Three very possible scenarios. There are other possibilities of course. Which do yo